Dr. Doug Woodward The Lumpkin auditor ium in USC’s Dar la Moore School of Business was filled to capacity by business and government leaders December 2. Three panelists and three speakers followed dean of the business school, Dr. Hildy Teegen’s introductions.

Dr. Douglas P. Woodward, an economist in the Moore School’s Division of Research, moderated the three panel ists: Dr. Frank Hefner, professor of economics, Col lege of Charleston; Dr. Donald L. Schunk, research economist with the BB&T Center for Economic and Community Development at Coastal Carolina, Conway; Dr. Bruce Yandle, professor of economics emeritus, Clemson University.

Hefner wondered about a new perspective under the cur rent economic conditions. Twenty years ago, the economic condi t ions had more recent historical precedents, al lowing for an available basis for predict ions. Forecast ing in a familiar context allowed for reasonable expectat ions with even a little accuracy among practit ioners in economics, albeit then and now “the dismal science.” But now, where are the recent parallels in history? Hefner said 1907 came to mind, when there was a major economic disaster, and when J.P. Morgan himself had to provide the country’s leadership and liquidity from his office at #1 Wall Street. The fabric of finance actually stopped. There was no Federal Reserve until 1913.

Harris DeLoach Hefner recalled fondly the early success of the 1981 Economic Recovery Tax Act , which began a boom and an “Age of Great Moderation,” as he put it. But then, in the early ’80s, an unemployment of 10 percent was not as bad as an unemployment of 10 percent today because today the educat ion and t raining levels are much higher, meaning people of higher incomes are losing their jobs, greatly reducing the public’s purchasing power.

Dean Hildy Teegen Schunk tried to relate the “new normal,” what people see as what can be reasonably expected. He ref lected Hefner’s fear that personal consump- t ion is a funct ion of income, and incomes are fewer wi th 10 percent unemployment , which reduces retail’s portion of the GDP.

On a br ighter note, Schunk, a resident of the Grand St rand, thought Horry County’s recession experience had bottomed out last June, particularly since the July 4 business had done so well. On the other hand, though, Schunk shared his worries over what to expect in 2010. Recovery or relapse?

Yandle announced the recession was over, probably by the end of June but certainly by last August. Still, we’re walking along the bot tom. There’s no upward movement or employment gain, not yet.

Yandle expects the state’s unemployment rate to hit 13 percent in 2010 and the nat ion’s, about 11.5 percent. Fear– induced savings is now maybe $500 billion instead of the $50 billion in 2007.

Af ter 2010, the fear factor should subside, and the savings will fall with more spending. He observed oil and gold go together. As gold goes to $1,200 an ounce, oil can be expected to return to $120 a barrel and gasoline, $3.25 a gallon.

Af ter 2010, Yandle feared, inflation can be expected even though GDP growth shouldn’t run much higher than 2.2–2.5 percent.

The keynote speaker was Harris E. DeLoach Jr., chai rman and CEO of Hartsville–based Sonoco Products Company.

Sonoco’s position as a packager of consumer food goods puts the company in a favorable light. As incomes are threat - ened, people tend to eat at home more. Still, DeLoach reported closing four Sonoco paper mills, 14 industrial and six consumer converting plants in 2008–09. The reduction and combinat ion has changed Sonoco forever, and maybe for the better in some areas. Overal l , Sonoco has over 300 plants and 18,000 employees in 36 countries.

As part of his presentat ion, DeLoach gave Dean Teegen a Sonoco check for $600,000, his par t ial payment on a promised $3 million gift from Sonoco to the Moore School for the new building.

The company’s gross profit margin has imp over the last three quarters. Now it’s 18 percent year–to–year. In the year–to–date, the cash flow is $358 million. Debt paid down over the past year is $104 million, and the company has $195 million in cash and cash reserves. The debt carried by Sonoco is the company’s lowest since 1994.

DeLoach doesn’t expect a second dip in the recession. He expects slow continued growth.