By John Temple LigonTemple@TheColumbiaStar.com

HurricaneKatrina scores $40 billion in damages, according to a report by the S.C. Department of Insurance.

Dr. Christopher Landsea of the National Hurricane Center in Miami discussed the relationship between hurricanes and global warming inside USC's Calcott Building, Feb. 22. Landsea is the NHC's Science and Operations Officer.

Landsea quoted Leonardo DiCaprio, self-declared climate change authority, who cited a direct connection between man- made global warming and hurricane frequency and intensity. Landsea was not so sure DiCaprio knew what he was talking about.

In January 2005, Landsea resigned from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: "After some prolonged deliberation, I have decided to withdraw from participating in the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. I am withdrawing because I have come to view the part of the IPCC to which my expertise is relevant as having become politicized. In addition, when I have raised my concerns to the IPCC leadership, their response was simply to dismiss my concerns... I personally cannot in good faith continue to contribute to a process that I view as both being motivated by pre-conceived agendas and being scientifically unsound."

Dr. Christopher Landsea predicts named storm frequency and intensity for the next century. Before his USC audience in the Calcott Building, Landsea recalled the U.S. hurricane seasons in 2004 and in 2005. Florida had four hurricanes in 2004, and in 2005, there were 28 named storms in the U.S., 15 of them hurricanes. Total insurer losses from all 2005 catastrophes are estimated to be over $60 billion, according to "Coastal Property Insurance Issues in South Carolina," published in January 2007 by the S.C. Department of Insurance.

By the late 21st century, hurricanes are likely to have maybe five percent more strength, which implies what is now a 100 mph wind could become a 105 mph wind. Hurricane Katrina, a Category 5, probably carried an additional 2 mph in its winds due to global warming.

In the number of hurricanes by the end of this century, Landsea predicted fewer hurricanes, possibly 70% of today's number of annual hurricanes. Still, they will be slightly stronger. Over the next hundred years, the five percent shift in strength implies a 25% increase in Category 4 and 5 hurricanes.

On the other hand, for the last 15 years, even as ocean temperatures increased slightly, the number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes actually leveled off.

Only in the Atlantic do the hurricane hunters fly airplanes into the eye of the storm, measuring intensity and scale. The rest of the world measures by satellites, although now there are eight stationary satellites, presumably enough to say storm records are getting more accurate.

In the South Pacific and the South Indian Ocean from 1950 until 1976, the storm count stayed relatively flat. But when the Japanese launched their first geostationary satellites, the hurricane count increased.

Most hurricanes don't hit land, so until satellites, the hurricane count was far less accurate.

Storm intensity measurements are also improving with infrared photography. The Bangladesh storm that killed maybe 500,000 people in 1970, for instance, was not measured by infrared photography and was not even rated as a hurricane. Since then, it has been upgraded to a Category 4 or 5.

The Atlantic is the only area where stronger hurricanes are recently recorded. The rest of the world has not experienced a strengthening of storms.

Besides strengthening of storms in the Atlantic, the other dramatic gain is in value of damages, which is due directly to the gain in built- up value of properties in the path of hurricanes. If the 1926 Miami hurricane hit today, damages would be $150 billion. Along the coasts of S.C. and N.C. there were about half a million people in 1930, 1.5 million in 1950, and 13 million in 2000.

To help determine if the current increased number of storms is a cycle or a trend, a count of the 1933 storms compared with those of 2005 is helpful. Before satellites, of course, the number of storms in 1933 was 21, and 19 hit land. In 2005, there were 28 storms, and 17 hit land. Today, thanks to satellites, no storm goes unnoticed and unrecorded.

In the Atlantic between 1900 and 2006, there have been nine named storms per year on average. Between 1900 and 1965, when satellites began, two and one- half storms were missed every year on average.

In conclusion, said Landsea, for the next century, a slight drop in the number of hurricanes is likely, while a five percent increase in intensity can be expected.

Landsea did not comment on the insurance industry's recent flare- ups in premiums for covering coastal properties. But with a predicted downturn in frequency of storms and an expected intensity gain of no more than five percent insurance rates reflect overreaction to somewhat sloppy science.

Next week: How the insurance industry in South Carolina is taking all of this.